基金经理把脉新消费： 短期可能过热 高成长逻辑不改

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption era is gaining momentum, driven by policy support and the spending power of Generation Z, leading to significant investment opportunities in the market [1][2]. New Consumption Highlights - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold surged by 14.94% on June 30, reaching a record high of 1035 HKD, reflecting the strong recovery of the consumption sector [1]. - New consumption categories such as pets and blind boxes are becoming market highlights as younger generations take the lead in consumer spending [1][2]. Market Analysis - The new consumption sector is experiencing strong phase growth, with good performance in earnings, leading to market confidence in future growth [2]. - Concerns have arisen regarding whether some new consumption stocks have reached overvalued levels after recent price increases, prompting a need for careful evaluation of individual stock valuations [3][4]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the new consumption industry is at a mid-high level, attracting significant capital due to high growth expectations, although it has not reached the extreme levels seen in 2020-2021 [4]. - The uncertainty in future cash flows makes traditional DCF valuation challenging, suggesting that PEG may be a more practical valuation method for this sector [4]. Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is expected to continue evolving, with new models and products emerging, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [6]. - There may be a divergence within the sector, with companies that can consistently meet or exceed performance expectations likely to see stock price appreciation, while those lacking new products may face declines [6].