Centene(US:CNC) Forbes·2025-07-01 22:15Core Viewpoint - Centene has withdrawn its 2025 guidance due to lower-than-expected market growth in over 20 states, impacting its risk adjustment revenue expectations significantly [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - An independent actuarial firm's analysis indicated that the overall market growth in 22 states where Centene operates is lower than anticipated, with morbidity levels being significantly higher than the company's previous assumptions [3]. - The analysis covers 22 of the 29 states where Centene sells individual coverage, representing approximately 72% of the company's marketplace membership [3]. Group 2: Financial Impact - Centene's preliminary analysis suggests a reduction in its full-year net risk adjustment revenue transfer expectation by about $1.8 billion, which translates to an adjusted diluted EPS impact of approximately $2.75 [4]. - The estimate is based on paid claims data through April 30, 2025, and includes projections for the remaining eight months of the year [4]. Group 3: Enrollment Trends - Centene's enrollment in Obamacare increased by 29% to 5.6 million members in the first quarter of the year, up from 4.3 million a year ago, despite a decrease of over 330,000 enrollees in Medicaid coverage [4]. Group 4: Legislative Context - The announcement coincides with the U.S. Senate passing a budget bill that could lead to 11 million Americans losing health insurance coverage, primarily affecting those enrolled in Obamacare and Medicaid, which Centene administers [5]. Group 5: Future Reporting - Centene is currently closing its second quarter and analyzing data, with plans to report its second quarter 2025 results and provide further insights on July 25 [6].