迈入新一轮上涨周期？标普500指数迎来两年多来首个“黄金交叉”

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index has experienced its first "golden cross" in over two years, signaling a potentially bullish market trend as short-term momentum surpasses long-term trends [1][2]. Technical Indicators - A golden cross occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, indicating strengthening market momentum [2]. - The last occurrence of a golden cross for the S&P 500 was on February 2, 2023, marking the early stages of the current bull market, during which the index has risen over 48% [2]. Market Performance - Following the "liberation day" tariffs in April, the U.S. stock market has shown a gradual rebound, with multiple bullish technical signals emerging [2]. - The S&P 500 recently achieved its first historical closing high since February, setting a record for the fastest recovery from a 15%+ pullback [2]. Historical Data - Historical data from Dow Jones indicates that after a golden cross, the S&P 500 has a greater than 71% probability of rising over the next year, with an average gain of over 10% [2]. - In the last 20 occurrences of a golden cross, the average gain increased to over 13%, with an 85% success rate [2]. Broader Market Trends - Other market indices, including the Nasdaq Composite, have also recently achieved golden crosses, indicating a broader market trend [4]. - Small-cap stocks have begun to show increased activity, contributing to a more widespread market rebound [4]. Analyst Insights - Analysts view the golden cross as a reliable buying opportunity, with historical evidence suggesting its signals are more dependable than those of a death cross [3][4]. - Piper Sandler's chief market technician anticipates the S&P 500 could reach 6,600 points by the end of 2025 [4].