伊核问题的前世今生：“核模糊+先发制人”，以色列如何确立自身核策略

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Israel's nuclear strategy, highlighting its historical context, development, and implications for regional security, particularly in relation to Iran's nuclear program [1][11]. Group 1: Historical Context of Israel's Nuclear Program - Israel's interest in nuclear weapons dates back to its founding in 1948, driven by historical traumas and the need for "ultimate deterrence" [2][6]. - The Israeli Atomic Energy Commission was established in 1952, and by the late 1950s, Israel began secretly advancing its nuclear program with significant assistance from France [2][3]. - By 1967, Israel had successfully assembled its first nuclear device, marking a significant milestone in its nuclear capabilities [3]. Group 2: Nuclear Ambiguity and Strategic Considerations - Israel's "nuclear ambiguity" strategy allows it to neither confirm nor deny its nuclear arsenal, enhancing deterrence while avoiding international scrutiny [4]. - This strategy is underpinned by three main considerations: enhancing deterrence credibility, evading international condemnation, and maintaining technological freedom [4]. - The 1969 understanding with the U.S. solidified this approach, allowing Israel to develop its nuclear capabilities without formal acknowledgment [4]. Group 3: Military Actions and Regional Implications - Israel's military actions, such as the 1981 destruction of Iraq's Osirak reactor, exemplify its "preemptive strike" doctrine aimed at preventing adversaries from acquiring nuclear capabilities [8]. - The ongoing threat posed by Iran's nuclear program has led Israel to adopt a multi-faceted approach, including intelligence operations, targeted assassinations, and military strikes [9][10]. - Despite Israel's nuclear capabilities, its actions have complicated regional security dynamics, leading to increased tensions and potential arms races among neighboring countries [11][12]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article suggests that Israel's aggressive nuclear strategy may lead to a security dilemma, where increased military actions provoke further retaliation and instability in the region [12]. - The long-term implications of Israel's nuclear policy could exacerbate hostilities and hinder prospects for peace, necessitating a reevaluation of its approach to regional security [12].