欧洲央行管委穆勒：目前无需降息以刺激经济 通胀基本符合目标

Core Viewpoint - The current economic conditions in the Eurozone do not warrant further monetary easing, as the economy is gradually recovering and inflation is near target levels [1][3]. Economic Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) can maintain stable borrowing costs during its upcoming meeting, as there have been eight rate cuts since June 2024 and inflation is "basically at target" [1]. - ECB officials believe that the inflation rate will stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term after dipping below this level in 2026 [3]. Trade Relations - The ECB is closely monitoring the evolving trade relationship between the EU and the US, particularly the impact of tariffs set by the Trump administration on the EU economy [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding the specific situation in September, but officials expect to gain clearer insights into trade and fiscal plans for better assessments [3]. Inflation Risks - Risks affecting the inflation outlook, such as potential supply chain disruptions, fiscal spending, and energy price fluctuations, are considered to be in a balanced state [3]. - The strong euro, which has appreciated by 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, may complicate policy decisions for the ECB [3][4]. Currency Impact - A strong euro can lower import prices and reduce the competitiveness of exports, both of which can suppress inflation [4]. - Despite the rapid appreciation of the euro, ECB officials do not express significant concern, noting that the current exchange rate remains within historical ranges [4].