杨晓磊+彭悦：黄金后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, indicating a shift in the traditional analysis framework that relied on U.S. real interest rates [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - Short-term geopolitical conflicts can rapidly increase market demand for safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices higher, but as tensions ease, demand may decline, leading to a return to average prices [2] - Long-term geopolitical instability could undermine the U.S. dollar's credibility, potentially establishing a foundation for sustained increases in gold prices [2] Economic and Monetary Policy Influences - The U.S. economic and fiscal conditions significantly impact the credibility of the dollar; a strong U.S. economy typically strengthens the dollar, leading to lower gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the June 2025 FOMC meeting, along with a neutral to hawkish stance, suggests that any future market expectations of rate cuts could positively influence gold prices [1][2] Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, reflecting a global trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar, which supports the long-term demand for gold [2] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, central banks worldwide have accelerated gold purchases to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets, providing a solid long-term support for gold prices [2] Investment Strategy - Gold remains a valuable asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, with long-term investment potential; however, current high prices suggest caution against chasing prices, favoring accumulation during price corrections [3] - Investors can consider gold ETFs for direct exposure to physical gold or opt for gold stock ETFs for higher volatility and potential returns, depending on their risk tolerance [3]