铁矿石：唐山限产政策或抑制铁矿需求

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a downward trend in both supply and demand, with expectations of continued weakness in the near term, particularly due to seasonal factors and production restrictions in certain regions [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.491 million tons to 33.576 million tons this week, with significant reductions from Australia and Brazil [4] - Australian shipments totaled 19.99 million tons, down 1.109 million tons, with shipments to China specifically decreasing by 418,000 tons [4] - Brazilian shipments fell by 677,000 tons to 8.833 million tons, with major mining companies like Rio Tinto, BHP, FMG, and Vale all reporting declines in their respective shipment volumes [4] Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.4229 million tons, showing a slight increase of 110,000 tons week-on-week, while the blast furnace operating rate remained stable at 83.82% [3] - Steel mill profitability was reported at 59.31%, indicating stable margins despite the fluctuating market conditions [3] - However, the demand outlook is tempered by seasonal factors, with expectations of reduced demand as the industry enters a traditional off-peak period [6] Inventory - As of June 30, port inventories stood at 138.6981 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 604,200 tons week-on-week, while steel mill imported ore inventories also saw a reduction [5] - The increase in daily port throughput suggests a potential for slight inventory depletion in the coming weeks, despite the recent drop in port arrivals [5] Market Outlook - The iron ore futures contract is expected to remain weak, with projections indicating a continued decline in molten iron production in July, averaging between 2.3 to 2.4 million tons [6] - The implementation of production restrictions in Tangshan from July 4 to 15 is anticipated to further reduce iron ore demand [6] - The market sentiment is leaning towards a bearish outlook for the September futures contract, with recommendations for short positions in the range of 690 to 720 [6]