特朗普关税风险施压亚洲股市 7月季节性上涨或失灵

Group 1 - Asian stock markets may struggle to achieve seasonal gains in July due to concerns over tariffs and macroeconomic conditions, with the average return for July over the past decade being 1.36% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the US is a significant barrier to maintaining past performance, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer [1] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has risen for three consecutive months as of June, but the reinstatement of higher tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the stock market [1] Group 2 - The third quarter presents potential risks, including higher inflation and growth slowdown, with skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts [2] - If tariff outcomes are milder than expected and the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, it could encourage capital inflows into Asian markets [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has increased by 12% year-to-date, outperforming the US market, although Southeast Asian countries face significant pressure from tariff impacts [2]