智通财经网·2025-07-02 03:59Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has issued a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291), projecting a 34% upside potential to a target price of HKD 33.50 based on a 2026 expected P/E ratio of 19 times, discounted to the end of 2025 [1] Group 1: Recent Performance - Management observed positive year-on-year growth in beer sales for the second quarter of 2025, with low single-digit growth achieved despite a challenging industry environment [2] - Average selling prices have seen a slight increase due to mild product mix upgrades, even in a difficult pricing environment [2] - High-end and sub-high-end products achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in the first five months of 2025, with expectations for growth to accelerate to high single-digit to double-digit for the full year [2] Group 2: Profitability - Management reaffirmed the commitment to achieve double-digit profit growth in 2025, supported by a gross margin expansion of over 1 percentage point, primarily due to a decrease in unit sales costs driven by favorable raw material costs [3] - Continuous cost reduction measures are expected to contribute to a decline in sales and administrative expense ratios [3] Group 3: Brand Performance - Heineken continued its strong momentum in June, with sales growing over 20% year-on-year [4] - Pure draft beer sales recorded a mid-single-digit decline for the year, partly due to a high base in the Sichuan market, especially during the Spring Festival, while the company is undergoing channel reforms [4] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Management emphasized collaboration with three new channels (Sam's Club, Hema Instant Delivery, and Pang Donglai) to boost sales and leverage customer insights [5] - New channel partnerships currently account for a high single-digit percentage of total sales, up from a low single-digit percentage last year, with profit margins on par with non-immediate consumption channels [5] Group 5: Regional Performance - Heineken has maintained robust performance in the Guangdong market, with sales growth exceeding the national average [6] Group 6: Shareholder Returns - Management reiterated the goal of achieving a 60% dividend payout ratio by 2025, with plans to increase it to 70% within two years [7]