集运期货：EC盘面上行

Pricing Information - As of July 1, the spot rates for major shipping companies are as follows: Maersk at $1777/TEU and $2970/TEU; CMA at $1935-$2185/TEU and $3445-$3945/TEU; MSC at $2180/TEU and $3640/TEU; ONE at $2604-$3094/TEU and $3343-$4043/TEU; EMC at $2100-$2655/TEU and $3100-$4060/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of June 30, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2123.24 points, a 10% increase month-on-month, while the US West Coast index decreased by 22% to 1619.19 points. The SCFI composite index as of June 27 is at 1861.51 points, down 0.4% from the previous period. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate increased by 10% to $2030/TEU, while the Shanghai-US West Coast rate is $2578/FEU, down 7% from the previous week, and the Shanghai-US East Coast rate is $4717/FEU, down 12% from the previous week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of July 1, the global container shipping capacity stands at 32.61 million TEU, an 8% increase year-on-year. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's composite PMI for June is 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0. The US manufacturing PMI for May is at 48.5, with the new orders index at 47.6. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.32 in May [3] Market Logic - The futures market saw an increase yesterday, with the main contract for August closing at 1904.9 points, up 8.15%. The market opened higher in the afternoon, influenced by some airlines' higher quotes for the second half of July, raising expectations for August pricing. The previous forecast remains that a significant drop in actual prices for August is unlikely. Airlines may initially set higher August quotes and adjust based on actual transaction conditions. The price trend requires close monitoring, with the main contract expected to show a fluctuating pattern, but the rising spot prices suggest an upward shift in the fluctuation price center [4] Operational Recommendations - The market is advised to take a cautious wait-and-see approach, with expectations for the main contract to fluctuate between 1800 and 2000 points [5]