国内外进入需求淡季 预计PVC将延续震荡走势

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the PVC futures market is showing strength, with the main contract trading at 4924.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.76% increase [1] - PVC powder exports have been a bright spot in demand, with cumulative exports from January to May 2025 reaching 1.6985 million tons, a 56.07% increase compared to 1.0883 million tons during the same period last year [2] - As of the end of June, the domestic PVC downstream comprehensive operating rate is at 42.78%, down 3.37 percentage points from early June and down 10.54 percentage points year-on-year, marking the lowest point since mid-March 2025 [2] Group 2 - On the supply side, there has been a slight increase in domestic PVC maintenance this week, with a planned maintenance by Henan Yuhang, leading to a slight decrease in supply; however, overall supply remains high with significant new production plans expected in the future [3] - Demand continues to weaken as the domestic and international markets enter a demand off-season, with some domestic downstream operations affected by the rainy season [3] - The cost side is supported by reduced ethylene imports, while the situation in Inner Mongolia regarding electricity restrictions for calcium carbide needs to be monitored, which is expected to support PVC bottom prices [3] Group 3 - The operational strategy suggests a fluctuating market, with basic fundamentals still under pressure as the downstream enters the off-season; however, the gradual changes in basis and monthly spread are narrowing the space for arbitrage and hedging [4] - The ongoing delay of India's BIS certification is expected to contribute to the continued fluctuation of PVC prices [4]