瑞穗点评日本央行短观调查：特朗普关税阴云下，企业信心保持韧性

Core Insights - The latest Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan indicates that despite the impact of U.S. tariffs, Japanese corporate confidence remains resilient, with investment plans aligning with seasonal trends [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized that corporate capital investment plans will be a focal point, and the timing of the next interest rate hike will depend on the assessment of tariff policies' impact on the real economy [1] - Mizuho believes that while current data may not significantly influence the Bank's stance, it could provide some confidence to Ueda and his team [1] Corporate Confidence - The confidence index for large manufacturing firms improved unexpectedly compared to the March survey, while the confidence indices for large non-manufacturing firms and small enterprises saw a slight decline [1] - Overall, corporate confidence remains relatively stable despite the influence of U.S. tariff policies [1] Investment Plans - Large enterprises have raised their capital expenditure forecast for FY2025 to a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while small enterprises adjusted their forecast to a decrease of 5.6%, indicating limited impact from tariffs [2] - The adjustments align with historical trends, suggesting that the tariff effects are manageable [2] Sales and Profit Expectations - Sales for all enterprises in FY2025 are expected to grow by 1.4%, slightly above the 0.8% growth forecast from the March survey [2] - However, profit forecasts have worsened from a decline of 1.4% to a decline of 5.7%, still consistent with historical trends [2] Employment Situation - Labor shortages remain severe, with the employment situation index at -35, only a slight improvement of 2 points from March [2] - The tight labor market is likely to continue exerting structural upward pressure on wages [2] Price Expectations - Current corporate expectations indicate a 2.4% increase in overall prices over the next year, three years, and five years, showing little change from the March survey [2] - Specifically, firms expect output prices to rise by 2.9% in the next year, 4.3% in three years, and 5.1% in five years, also reflecting stability compared to previous surveys [2] - This suggests that U.S. tariffs have not led Japanese firms to adopt a more conservative pricing stance, potentially alleviating the Bank of Japan's concerns about downward price risks [2]