中国外汇投资研究院：欧洲央行货币政策评估聚焦——不确定时代的通胀博弈

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has conducted a strategic assessment of its monetary policy in response to significant changes in the market environment, including geopolitical conflicts, rapid advancements in digitalization and artificial intelligence, demographic shifts, climate crises, and a profound restructuring of the international financial system [1][2]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Strategy - The ECB's assessment addresses the need to optimize its economic evaluation framework, policy tools, and decision-making mechanisms in a "non-transparent and unstable" new normal [1]. - A significant adjustment in this assessment is the clarification and reinforcement of the inflation target, acknowledging past "substantial and persistent deviations" from the target [1]. Inflation Target - The inflation target is set at "significantly above 0%" (specifically 2%), which is crucial for ensuring that policy rates have sufficient "buffer space" to respond to negative shocks [2]. - The ECB emphasizes that the 2% target provides a "clear anchor" for inflation expectations while demonstrating pragmatic flexibility [2]. Policy Tools and Decision-Making - Adjustments to policy rates remain the primary tool, but the ECB is prepared to utilize other instruments such as long-term refinancing operations, asset purchases, negative interest rates, and forward guidance when necessary [3]. - The ECB has formally integrated scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis into its policy decision-making process, moving away from solely relying on baseline forecasts [3].