多晶硅涨停、工业硅涨近5%，光伏产业现回暖信号？

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing upward momentum due to policy expectations and production cut news, but high inventory levels are limiting the rebound potential [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On July 2, domestic futures market saw significant increases in industrial silicon and polysilicon, with polysilicon main contract hitting a limit up at 35,050 CNY/ton, a rise of 6.99%, and industrial silicon main contract closing at 8,210 CNY/ton, up 4.79% [1] - The recent production cut news from industrial silicon manufacturers has contributed to price increases, although the actual timing of these cuts remains uncertain [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average cost of polysilicon has dropped to 34.52 CNY/kg, with recent price indices nearing this cost level, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - As of June 26, total polysilicon inventory reached 270,000 tons, marking a high point for recent years, with significant disparities among companies [2] - Despite a recent rebound in industrial silicon prices, the long-term supply-demand imbalance persists, limiting the potential for further price increases [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The fundamentals for industrial silicon show slight improvement, with major manufacturers reducing output leading to a more stable supply, but demand remains relatively weak [2] - The market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations, with ongoing attention needed on industry hedging and production changes from major manufacturers [2]