Group 1 - The global economy is facing significant uncertainty and volatility due to trade barriers and protectionist policies, which have impacted growth prospects [1][2] - The OECD has revised its 2025 global economic growth forecast down from 3.1% to 2.9%, citing U.S. tariff policies as a major factor [2] - The World Bank has also lowered its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from earlier predictions [2] Group 2 - Nearly 70% of economies have seen their growth forecasts downgraded, with developed economies expected to grow by 1.2% and emerging markets by 3.8% [2] - The UNCTAD report indicates that global foreign direct investment is expected to decline for the second consecutive year due to escalating trade tensions [2] - The OECD Secretary-General has emphasized the need for constructive dialogue to alleviate current trade tensions, which are hindering economic growth [3] Group 3 - If trade relations improve and a lasting agreement is reached, global economic growth could see an increase of approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 2026 [3] - The U.S. government's 90-day pause on "reciprocal tariffs" is set to expire on July 9, with ongoing negotiations facing challenges, particularly regarding auto tariffs [3]
（年中经济观察）不确定性笼罩 全球经济期待走出阴霾
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang·2025-07-02 11:54