Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-07-02 11:59Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (SH603993) is facing a temporary suspension of cobalt metal deliveries by its wholly-owned subsidiary IXM due to a force majeure event related to the extension of a cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) [1][3] Group 1: Company Operations - IXM's business covers over 80 countries across Asia, Europe, South America, and North America, leveraging strategic synergies between trading and mining sectors [2] - In 2024, IXM is projected to complete a physical trading volume of 4 to 4.5 million tons, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.353 billion yuan [2] - Luoyang Molybdenum is the world's largest cobalt producer, expecting to produce 114,200 tons of cobalt in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106% [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The DRC's cobalt export ban has been extended for an additional three months to alleviate market pressure from high inventory levels and to create conditions for future market regulation [3][4] - Since the initial ban in February, cobalt prices have risen significantly, from 162,500 yuan per ton on February 24 to 245,000 yuan per ton on July 2 [4][5] - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt production, with an estimated output of 207,400 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.56% [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that continued restrictions on cobalt exports from the DRC may lead to a shift from a surplus to a potential shortage in the cobalt market by the early 2030s [5] - By 2025, China's refined cobalt production is expected to meet domestic consumption and export needs without creating excess inventory, with a projected output of 144,000 tons [5]