银行理财规模站稳31万亿，下半年如何接住“存款搬家”

Core Viewpoint - The banking wealth management market has maintained a scale of 31.22 trillion yuan, showing a growth of 5.22% compared to the beginning of the year, despite challenges such as declining yields and regulatory pressures on valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the end of June, the banking wealth management market's scale reached 31.22 trillion yuan, slightly down from 31.5 trillion yuan at the end of May, which was a record high [1]. - The growth in the first half of the year was driven by multiple factors, including a bullish bond market that boosted fixed-income product yields and seasonal capital flows [1][2]. - The average annualized yield for fixed-income products was 2.84%, while cash management products had a near 7-day annualized yield of 1.43%, both exceeding the prevailing deposit rates [2]. Group 2: Yield Trends - Equity wealth management products faced significant pressure, with an average annualized yield of 4.1%, influenced by stock market volatility [3]. - In June, numerous wealth management products announced downward adjustments to their performance benchmarks, with some benchmarks falling below the deposit rates [3]. - The average performance benchmark for newly issued fixed-income products has shown a downward trend since early 2022, indicating a persistent decline [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Regulatory changes have imposed stricter requirements on valuation methods previously used by wealth management companies, particularly regarding smoothing mechanisms [4]. - The traditional business model of "high yield, low volatility" in banking wealth management is under significant pressure, leading to challenges in maintaining scale and net value [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The banking wealth management market is expected to face dual pressures from interest rate cuts and valuation adjustments in the second half of the year [6]. - Wealth management companies are likely to innovate products focusing on low volatility and diversified themes to adapt to the changing environment [6]. - There is a growing consensus in the industry to expand equity-linked wealth management products, although challenges remain due to traditional clients' low risk tolerance [7].