【财经分析】无惧多空博弈 7月债市依旧可期

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations in yields, with a focus on whether the 10-year government bond yield can break through previous resistance levels, amid a backdrop of weak economic recovery [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 2, the interbank bond market showed a downward trend in yields, with the 3-month government bond yield stable at 1.30%, the 2-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.36%, and the 10-year yield at 1.64% [2]. - The bond market remains stable despite seasonal liquidity changes, with experts expressing optimism about the potential for the 10-year yield to break previous resistance levels [3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Seasonal liquidity is expected to ease in July, providing a foundation for a potential "bond bull" market, as July typically sees lower funding rates due to weaker credit demand and local government pressure [3]. - Insurance institutions may benefit from a potential reduction in preset interest rates, leading to increased premium income and a higher acceptance of long-term rates [3]. - The net supply of government bonds in the third quarter is projected to be high, with net financing estimated between 2.09 trillion to 2.63 trillion yuan, which could exert pressure on the bond market [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the challenges, there are still opportunities in the bond market, particularly with the influx of incremental funds from insurance and bank wealth management products [7]. - The ongoing "yield spread" enthusiasm since June is expected to continue, with significant declines in yields for various bond types [8]. - Institutions are advised to maintain a bullish outlook on the bond market, focusing on medium to long-term bonds as the market sentiment is likely to rise again in July [9].