深夜突发！数据爆冷 美联储或提前降息？

Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. job market, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider an interest rate cut sooner than expected [1][3][7]. Employment Data Summary - The ADP employment report for June shows a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the largest decline since March 2023, while the forecast was an increase of 98,000 jobs [3][4]. - Job growth in goods-producing sectors increased by 32,000, but service-providing sectors saw a decline of 66,000 jobs, with notable losses in professional services, education and health services, and financial services [3][4]. - Predictions for the upcoming non-farm payroll report suggest a significant shortfall, with UBS forecasting an increase of only 100,000 jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [4][6]. Market Reaction - Following the ADP report, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted gains [1][2]. - The dollar index rebounded, rising by 0.44% after a period of decline, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in July has increased, with market expectations rising from 20% to approximately 27.4% following the employment data release [7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasized the need for the Fed to act on interest rates, suggesting that the current rates are too high and that the Fed's policies may be lagging behind market signals [7].