债券通八年蝶变

Core Insights - The Bond Connect "Northbound" program has significantly grown since its launch eight years ago, becoming a crucial channel for foreign investment in China's financial market [1][2][3] - As of May 2023, the average daily trading volume of the "Northbound" program reached 48.2 billion yuan, a more than 31-fold increase from the initial 1.5 billion yuan in its first month [2][3] - The program has facilitated the entry of 835 foreign investors into the market, contributing to the rapid growth of foreign holdings in Chinese bonds [1][3] Bond Connect Development - The "Northbound" program was launched on July 3, 2017, providing a convenient access point for global investors to participate in the Chinese bond market [2] - The trading activity on the first day was robust, with 19 quoting institutions and 70 foreign institutions completing 142 transactions worth 7.048 billion yuan [2] - The program has become a vital channel for foreign investors, with the total amount of RMB bonds held by foreign investors continuously increasing [2][3] Market Impact - As of May 2025, foreign institutions held 4.35 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for approximately 2.6% of the total custody volume [3] - The introduction of the "Bond Connect" has enhanced market liquidity and reduced financing costs for Chinese enterprises [3] - The program has also solidified Hong Kong's status as a financial hub, increasing its role in the global financial system [3] Expansion of Connectivity - In addition to the "Northbound" program, the "Southbound" program was launched on September 24, 2021, allowing domestic investors to access overseas assets [4] - As of May 2023, the "Southbound" program has seen significant growth, with 918 bonds and a custody balance of 532.94 billion yuan [4] - Future expansions of the "Southbound" program are expected to enhance asset allocation for investment institutions and increase market liquidity [4] Derivative Market Development - The "Northbound Swap Connect" was launched on May 15, 2023, allowing foreign investors to participate in the onshore financial derivatives market [5] - By June 2025, the "Northbound Swap Connect" had accumulated a trading volume of 7.16 trillion yuan, becoming a primary channel for managing RMB asset interest rate risks [5] Future Outlook - The outlook for China's bond market remains promising, with ongoing efforts to enhance openness and improve the investment environment [6][7] - Since 2019, Chinese bonds have been included in major international bond indices, with increasing weightings, indicating growing global interest [6] - The current foreign ownership of Chinese bonds is relatively low at 2.4%, suggesting significant room for growth in foreign investment [6][7]