野村证券陆挺：促进消费还需多措并举

Group 1 - The "old-for-new" policy has contributed to a good growth in national consumption in the first five months, but long-term consumption promotion requires more reforms and measures, such as stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, improving income expectations, and optimizing wealth distribution [1][2] - In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month acceleration of 1.3 percentage points, marking the highest consumption growth rate since 2024 [1] - The "old-for-new" policy is seen as a temporary measure that may lead to a decrease in future demand for durable goods, indicating the need for additional methods to further improve consumption [1] Group 2 - Stabilizing residents' wealth, particularly in the stock and real estate markets, is crucial for boosting consumer confidence, as a significant portion of Chinese residents' wealth is tied to real estate [2] - Improving income distribution is considered the most important means to promote consumption growth, with suggestions to reform the social security system and increase rural pension levels to enhance consumption among low-income groups [2] - The real estate sector is vital to China's domestic demand, with a current annual decline of about 10% and a 22% year-on-year drop in new housing starts [2][3] Group 3 - The real estate market's stability is closely linked to local government finances and has a profound impact on infrastructure and consumer wealth [3] - Current policies like interest rate cuts and the removal of purchase restrictions have been extensively utilized, but the effectiveness of policies aimed at improving real estate companies' cash flow is limited [3] - It is essential to clear real estate market debts, allowing developers to go bankrupt if necessary, while ensuring that debts are repaid and pre-sold properties are delivered, with reasonable compensation for buyers if delivery fails [3]