USB vs. MTB: Which Regional Banking Stock Holds More Upside?

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Bancorp (USB) and M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) are both U.S. regional banks facing similar market pressures but have distinct growth strategies and geographic exposures [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Bancorp (USB) - USB has undertaken strategic initiatives to enhance its market position, including acquisitions and partnerships to boost digital capabilities and diversify revenue streams [3][4]. - The company has seen a rise in net interest income (NII) and expects continued growth supported by investment portfolio repositioning and stabilizing funding costs [4][5]. - Management projects total revenues for 2025 to grow by 3-5% from $27.6 billion reported in 2024, driven by growth in non-interest income and NII [5]. - As of March 31, 2025, USB had a long-term debt of $59.9 billion and $17 billion in short-term borrowings, with cash and due from banks amounting to $50 billion, indicating a strong liquidity position [6]. - USB plans to increase its quarterly dividend by 4% to 52 cents per share and continues its $5 billion share repurchase program, with $4.9 billion remaining [7][9]. - USB trades below its five-year median P/E of 10.75 and the industry average of 11.13, making it attractive for value investors [18][21]. Group 2: M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) - MTB has demonstrated significant revenue growth, with expectations for higher NII driven by modest lending demand and Fed rate cuts [10][11]. - The company recorded solid loan and deposit growth, bolstered by the acquisition of People's United in 2022, which added $36 billion in loans and $53 billion in deposits [11][12]. - MTB's management anticipates average loans and leases to be between $135 billion and $137 billion, with total deposits projected at $162–$164 billion for 2025 [12]. - As of March 31, 2025, MTB had total borrowings of $12.1 billion and cash and interest-bearing deposits of $22.8 billion, reflecting a healthy financial position [13]. - MTB has also passed the stress test and increased its quarterly dividends by 4% to $1.35 per share, with a share repurchase program authorized for up to $4 billion [14]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis - Over the past three months, USB and MTB shares increased by 19.9% and 20.9%, respectively, outperforming the industry and S&P 500 [15]. - USB's forward P/E ratio is 10.33, lower than its five-year median and industry average, while MTB's P/E is 11.42, higher than its five-year median [18][21]. - Earnings estimates for USB indicate an 8% rise for 2025, while MTB's estimates show an 8.5% increase for the same year, with upward revisions for MTB's 2026 estimates [22][24]. - USB is viewed as a more compelling investment choice for value-oriented investors due to its lower valuation and broader strategic initiatives [25][26].