欧亚开发银行预测—— 俄罗斯经济保持平稳增长

Core Viewpoint - The Eurasian Development Bank's report predicts that the Russian economy will maintain a high growth level in 2025, but risks in the energy export sector cannot be ignored [1] Economic Characteristics - Economic Cooling: In Q1 2025, Russia's GDP grew by 1.4% year-on-year, a decline from 4.3% in 2024, marking the lowest growth in the past seven quarters. Industrial production remains the main driver of GDP growth, contributing approximately 0.3 percentage points [1] - Domestic Demand Slowdown: Retail, catering, and service sectors saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in total turnover in Q1 2025, down from 6.5% in 2024. The unemployment rate stood at 2.3%, maintaining historical lows. However, high-interest rates have shifted consumer behavior towards saving, leading to a slowdown in consumption and investment activities [2] - Ruble Appreciation: The ruble appreciated over 20% against the dollar from December 2024 to May 2025, reaching its highest level since the second half of 2023. This appreciation is attributed to high-interest monetary policy and improved geopolitical expectations, although it negatively impacts exports and budget revenues [2] Economic Forecast - GDP Growth: The bank forecasts a 2% GDP growth for Russia in 2025, slightly lower than previous predictions, primarily due to weak economic performance in Q1. High-interest rates will continue to limit consumption and investment, while declining global market demand will negatively affect exports [3] - Inflation Outlook: The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to slow to 7.5% in 2025, but persistent high inflation expectations and budget spending will likely keep inflation above the central bank's target [3] - Monetary Policy: The Central Bank of Russia is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance to gradually reduce inflation, with the key interest rate projected to drop to around 18% by the end of 2025 and further to about 10% by the end of 2027 [3] Currency Exchange Rate - Ruble Exchange Rate: The average exchange rate for USD to RUB in 2025 is projected to be 90. High-interest rates will support the ruble, but falling oil prices and reduced exports may create conditions for ruble depreciation in the second half of the year [4] Risks - Major Risks: The main risks to the Russian economy over the next three years include a significant and sustained drop in oil prices, which could lead to reduced export revenues and increased budget deficits. The government may need to seek additional financing sources through domestic financial markets to cover budget expenditures [4]