美联储9月降息概率超九成 市场聚焦今晚非农数据

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a high probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, with a focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - As of July, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate is 74.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 25.3% [1]. - For September, the probability of maintaining the rate is only 7.6%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 69.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 22.8% [1][3]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The recent "small non-farm" data released unexpectedly showed a negative value, raising concerns ahead of the official non-farm employment data set to be released [1].