Looking Ahead to Bank Earnings

Core Viewpoint - The earnings outlook for major banks such as JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup is subdued despite passing stress tests, with growth hindered by weak demand in conventional and investment banking [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - JPMorgan's Q2 earnings are expected to decline by -5.6% with revenues down -13.4% [3] - Citigroup and Wells Fargo are projected to see Q2 earnings decrease by -3.2% and -6.8% respectively [3] - The Zacks Investment Brokers & Managers industry, including these banks, anticipates a total Q2 earnings drop of -2.8% on -0.6% lower revenues [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - The overall Finance sector is expected to see Q2 earnings increase by +8.2% on +3.9% higher revenues [3] - Total S&P 500 earnings for the June quarter are projected to rise by +5.0% with +4.0% higher revenues [5] - Three sectors are expected to achieve double-digit earnings growth in Q2: Aerospace (+15.2%), Tech (+12.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+106.1%) [5] Group 3: Market Performance - Despite weak earnings growth expectations, stocks of JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have performed well in the market, likely due to anticipated capital returns and hopes for improved earnings growth [6] - The market's recovery from April lows suggests that participants may not view tariff uncertainties as a significant threat, although there is skepticism regarding this outlook [23]