★高频数据"背离"难掩基建亮色 财政支持扩投资后劲十足

Core Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown positive trends this year due to proactive fiscal policies, accelerated government bond issuance, and the commencement of major projects, although some high-frequency data related to infrastructure and construction site funding rates indicate that the momentum for effective investment expansion still needs to be fully realized [1][4][5] Infrastructure Investment Trends - The issuance of new local government special bonds exceeded 440 billion yuan in May, marking a record high for the year, while the construction business activity index remained in expansion at 51% [1][2] - High-frequency indicators such as rebar apparent demand, cement dispatch rates, and asphalt plant operating rates weakened in May, with rebar demand at 248.91 million tons, cement dispatch at 41.25%, and asphalt plant operating rates at 27.7%, all lower than the same period last year [1][2] Construction Site Funding Rates - As of June 3, the funding rate for sample construction sites was 59.13%, below the critical threshold of 60%, with non-residential projects at 61.01% and residential projects at 49.85% [3][4] - The low funding rates may impact project construction progress, but the civil engineering business activity index rose to 62.3% in May, indicating a continued acceleration in project construction [3][4] Fiscal Policy and Investment Support - The acceleration of new special bond issuance and the initiation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are expected to enhance fiscal support for effective investment [4][5] - The proportion of new special bonds allocated to infrastructure is approximately 72%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [5][6] Future Outlook - The issuance of replacement bonds has exceeded 80%, and the slowing pace of these issuances will create space for subsequent special bond issuances, which are expected to provide stronger support for infrastructure [5][6] - Experts predict that the necessity of using infrastructure investment to support the economy is increasing, with expected growth rates for broad and narrow infrastructure investments at 7.2% and 4.8% respectively for the year [6]