PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market has seen price increases, with varying growth rates across regions. The PVC futures market is on the rise, but trade merchants report little change in basis quotes, leading to weak spot market transactions [1] - The mainstream cash prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4730-4860 CNY/ton, South China at 4800-4860 CNY/ton, Hebei at 4500-4630 CNY/ton, and Shandong at 4640-4720 CNY/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - As of June 26, the overall operating rate for PVC powder is 76.81%, a slight increase of 0.07 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate for calcium carbide PVC is 80.43%, while ethylene PVC stands at 67.38% [2] - The social inventory of PVC has increased by 1.03% to 575,200 tons compared to the previous period, but shows a year-on-year decrease of 38.06%. East China holds 523,700 tons, while South China has 51,500 tons [2] PVC Market Outlook - Policy signals aimed at optimizing supply-side dynamics are expected to positively influence the long-term supply-demand imbalance in the PVC market. However, short-term supply-demand issues remain prominent due to the slow clearance of upstream capacity and ongoing demand constraints from the real estate sector [3] - The postponement of the BIS decision until the end of the year may lead to a decline in export volumes in the third quarter, with upcoming anti-dumping tax rulings in July potentially impacting future exports [3] - While the year-on-year inventory situation for PVC shows limited contradictions, the combination of basis and warehouse receipts indicates a fundamental basis for a rebound in PVC prices. However, caution is advised regarding short-term price movements, with long-term prospects dependent on the implementation of policy signals [3]
PVC:“供给侧优化”预期带动 短期仍需关注7月反倾销税裁定
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-03 02:08