中加基金权益周报︱股债跷跷板扰动，债市先弱后强

Market Review and Analysis - The primary market saw the issuance of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds amounting to 1110 billion, 6416 billion, and 1150 billion respectively, with net financing of 1110 billion, 5604 billion, and 1093 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance of 839 billion with a net financing of 612 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance of 2889 billion and a net financing of 11 billion [1] - The secondary market exhibited a fluctuating performance influenced by factors such as cross-quarter liquidity, the ceasefire in the Israel-Palestine conflict, military parade news, and market sentiment [1] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) showed a net injection, and the medium-term lending facility (MLF) was rolled over, supporting the cross-quarter liquidity [1] - The R001 and R007 rates increased by 1.2 basis points and 32.9 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [1] Policy and Fundamentals - In May, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises turned negative, impacted by base effect, price wars, and tariff shocks [1] - High-frequency data indicates stable production, sluggish consumption, and continued pressure on prices, with a significant drop in oil prices following the ceasefire [1] Overseas Market - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish views, and weakening economic data in the U.S. has raised market expectations for interest rate cuts within the year [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond closed at 4.29%, down 9 basis points from the previous week [1] Equity Market - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict significantly boosted market sentiment, leading to a rise in most broad-based A-share indices, with the total A-share index increasing by 3.56% and the ChiNext index rising by 5.69% [2] - The average daily trading volume in A-shares surged to 1.49 trillion, with a weekly increase of 2716.46 billion [2] - As of June 26, 2025, the total financing balance for A-shares reached 18265.35 billion, an increase of 173.68 billion from June 19 [2] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - Factors favoring the bond market are increasing in July, although the central bank's monetary policy tone may lead to a temporary market sentiment adjustment [2] - Historical trends suggest that bond market bullish forces may strengthen in July due to seasonal liquidity easing and reduced bank liability pressure [2] - A recommended strategy includes a combination of short to medium-term credit bonds and long-duration government bonds [2] - The convertible bond market faces supply-demand imbalances, with some banks redeeming convertible bonds, leading to a scarcity of underlying assets [2]