Market Overview - As of July 3, Iran has suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, raising concerns about geopolitical instability and leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude futures for August rose by $2.00 to $67.45 per barrel, a 3.06% increase; ICE Brent futures for September rose by $2.00 to $69.11 per barrel, a 2.98% increase [1] Key Information - In the first five months of 2025, China's crude oil imports from the Middle East accounted for 42.5%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year and down 5.6 percentage points from the five-year average. Conversely, imports from the Asia-Pacific region rose to 15.0%, an increase of 4.0 percentage points year-on-year and up 6.3 percentage points from the five-year average. Imports from South America accounted for 10.1%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the five-year average [2] - Shandong independent refineries operated at a crude distillation capacity of 50.74%, down 0.74 percentage points from the previous week. Specific operations included maintenance at Hualian, while Changyi's crude distillation unit was operational, and other secondary units remained idle [2] - Ecuador's state-owned oil pipeline company OCP has preemptively closed its crude oil pipeline to construct a new bypass due to accelerated erosion issues. Meanwhile, Petroamazonas is repairing pipelines along a new route, with leakage issues under control [2] - Polish refiner Orlen has ceased purchasing Russian crude oil for its Litvinov refinery in the Czech Republic, marking the end of its last contract with Rosneft [2] Production and Investment - Mexico's oil production is expected to drop to levels not seen since the late 1970s, with an average daily output of 1.62 million barrels from January to May 2024, the lowest since 1979. June exports fell to a historic low of 529,000 barrels per day due to declining production and reduced output from the Dos Bocas refinery [3] - Argentine energy company Pampa Energia announced a $426 million investment to build an oil and gas processing plant in the Vaca Muerta shale region, located in the Neuquén province, with plans for production to commence next year [3] Price Dynamics - Overnight oil price increases were primarily driven by geopolitical events and trade developments, although fundamental factors limited the extent of the price rise. Iran's suspension of cooperation with the UN nuclear agency raised concerns about supply disruptions, increasing risk premiums. Additionally, a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam, boosted demand expectations. However, OPEC+ production increases have been fully priced in, and U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 3.8 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations of a 1.8 million barrel decrease. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, below the healthy summer threshold of 9 million barrels, raising concerns about consumption fatigue [4] Outlook - The recommendation is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with WTI resistance levels at [67,68], Brent pressure at [69,70], and SC at [510,520]. Options trading may capture volatility opportunities, for reference only [5]
原油：地缘和宏观因素扰动加大 但EIA库存累库压制市场信心
Jin Tou Wang·2025-07-03 03:08