特朗普增产承诺成口号？达拉斯联储：关税冲击行业利润，美国页岩油钻探将放缓

Core Insights - The Dallas Federal Reserve's survey indicates that U.S. shale oil companies expect drilling activity to be significantly lower than initial plans for the year due to falling oil prices and uncertainties from President Trump's tariff policies [1][2] - Nearly half of the oil executives surveyed anticipate that drilling numbers in 2025 will be below earlier projections, with 42% of large exploration and production companies expecting a substantial decrease in drilling [1] - Tariffs have increased the costs of drilling and completing new wells by 4.01% to 6%, leading to a cautious approach towards drilling and investment among industry executives [1] Industry Challenges - The survey highlights the difficulties faced by domestic production, contrasting sharply with Trump's pro-extraction rhetoric [1] - Executives express concerns that Trump's tariffs on imported steel will negatively impact customer demand over the next 12 months, with calls for U.S. steel producers to increase output due to uncertainty in key pipe prices [1] - Oil service companies are showing early signs of industry downturn, with some suppliers struggling to survive amid reduced profitability [2] Executive Sentiments - Executives report that most companies are paying contractors below the levels needed to maintain profitability, indicating a challenging market environment [2] - There is a sentiment among oil service executives that exploration and production companies (E&Ps) are unwilling to bear increased costs, pushing service companies towards unsustainable profit levels [2]