通胀持续超预期支撑紧缩 日本央行10月或加息

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent movements in the USD/JPY exchange rate, highlighting expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan due to persistent inflation above the central bank's target [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - The USD/JPY exchange rate rose to around 143.75, an increase of 0.07% from the previous close of 143.65 [1] - The market anticipates that the USD/JPY could face resistance in the 143.35-143.40 range, with a potential recovery towards the 144.00 level if this resistance is broken [1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the Tokyo metropolitan area showed signs of slowing in June but remains significantly above the Bank of Japan's 2% target [1] - Marcel Thieliant from Capital Economics indicated that the ongoing inflation levels suggest that the Bank of Japan may need to resume tightening monetary policy, with a potential rate hike expected in October [1] - The article notes that overall inflation indicators are still well above the Bank of Japan's May forecasts, reinforcing the case for a shift in policy [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - The divergence in monetary policy expectations between the U.S. and Japan is seen as a core support for a stronger yen, with the market pricing in a potential 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The article mentions that the probability of a rate cut in July by the Federal Reserve is close to 20%, contributing to downward pressure on the USD/JPY [1] - Any further upward movement in the USD/JPY may be viewed as a selling opportunity, with gains potentially limited by the 200-period simple moving average near the 144.40 area [1]