“所有大型枢纽都已超负荷运转”，特朗普关税加剧欧洲港口拥堵

Core Insights - The article highlights the severe supply chain congestion in Europe, exacerbated by the unpredictable tariff policies of the Trump administration and the impact of drought on river levels, leading to significant delays in major ports [1][3][5]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The EU estimates that U.S. tariffs cover approximately €380 billion worth of products, accounting for 70% of its total exports to the U.S. [1][6]. - The Trump administration's tariff policies have forced container shipping companies to adjust their networks, causing delays and disruptions in inventory management [3][5]. Group 2: Port Congestion - Major European ports, including Antwerp, Hamburg, and Rotterdam, are experiencing unprecedented congestion, with waiting times for vessels significantly increasing (e.g., 77% increase in Bremen and 49% in Hamburg) [1][3][4]. - The average waiting time for barges to load containers is reported to be 66 hours in Antwerp and 77 hours in Rotterdam [4]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Early signs indicate that tariffs have not yet significantly impacted the Eurozone economy, but forecasts suggest a slowdown in GDP growth in the coming quarters [7]. - The potential for a trade war could severely affect countries like Germany, Ireland, and Italy, which have high export ratios to the U.S. relative to their GDP [6][7]. Group 4: Negotiation Dynamics - The EU is preparing for potential retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods valued at €210 billion, with an additional list of €950 billion in products under consideration [6][8]. - Experts believe that both the U.S. and EU face geopolitical challenges that necessitate cooperation over confrontation, suggesting a framework agreement may be achievable before the upcoming deadline [8].