Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market in the first half of 2025 shows a stark contrast between new and second-hand housing prices, with new home prices rising while second-hand home prices continue to decline, leading to renewed market confidence challenges [1][2]. New Homes - In June, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities reached 16,847 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.19% and a year-on-year increase of 2.59%, marking the sixth consecutive month of price increases [1]. - Despite the price increase, the transaction volume of new homes did not experience the expected mid-year surge, with a total transaction area of 10.34 million square meters in 30 key cities, showing a decline compared to previous periods [2]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Hefei, and Beijing led the price increases, with Shanghai seeing a 0.94% rise. High-end properties are driving this trend, with significant sales recorded in luxury projects [2]. - The overall market is expected to continue its differentiated performance in the second half of the year, with stable prices in first-tier and strong second- and third-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities are gradually adjusting [2]. Second-hand Homes - The second-hand housing market is struggling with a "price for volume" strategy, with prices in 100 cities declining, and 17 cities experiencing a drop of over 1% [4]. - The average price of second-hand homes has fallen for 28 consecutive months, with a year-on-year decline for 30 months, indicating a significant lack of market confidence [4]. - Despite the price drop, transaction volumes for second-hand homes are outperforming new homes, particularly in first-tier cities, with Beijing recording a 6.04% month-on-month increase in transactions [4]. - The market shows a structural differentiation, with lower-priced homes being more liquid and stable in price, while improved housing options remain scarce [4]. - The growth momentum for second-hand home transactions has begun to slow down, particularly in some third- and fourth-tier cities [4]. Market Outlook - The overall product quality of new homes is improving, which is squeezing the market space for second-hand homes, indicating that the "price for volume" strategy will remain dominant in the short term [5]. - The future direction of the real estate market will depend on whether the sustained heat in core first- and second-tier cities can extend to a broader market [5].
楼市新房二手房价格冰火两重天
Huan Qiu Wang·2025-07-03 06:47