国际观察：日美贸易谈判何以陷入僵局

Core Viewpoint - The US-Japan trade negotiations are at a standstill, with Japan facing potential increases in tariffs on its exports, particularly in the automotive sector, as the deadline for a trade agreement approaches [1][5][6] Group 1: Negotiation Status - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, Akira Amari, has made multiple trips to the US but has not achieved any progress in negotiations [1] - The US has set a 24% tariff rate on Japan, while Japan seeks to bundle this with the removal of tariffs on automobiles and steel [2] - The Japanese government emphasizes its contributions to the US economy through investments and job creation, seeking to leverage this for tariff reductions [2] Group 2: Key Issues in Negotiations - The automotive sector is a major sticking point, with Japan exporting 1.37 million vehicles to the US in 2024, valued at 7.2 trillion yen, which constitutes 34% of Japan's total exports to the US [3] - A 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles could lead to a potential loss of 13 trillion yen for Japan's economy, affecting over 5.58 million jobs across related industries [3] - The US aims to reduce its trade deficit with Japan, but American cars have struggled to gain traction in the Japanese market due to size and fuel efficiency issues [3] Group 3: Agricultural Concerns - Agriculture is another contentious area, with Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) facing pressure to protect domestic agricultural interests ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [4] - The Japanese government is unwilling to sacrifice agricultural protections for concessions on automotive tariffs, emphasizing the need to maintain national interests [4] Group 4: Outlook and Implications - The negotiations are increasingly uncertain, with President Trump expressing skepticism about reaching an agreement and hinting at raising tariffs to 30-35% if no deal is made [5][6] - If tariffs are implemented as proposed, Japan's actual GDP could decrease by 0.9% over five years [6]