美国6月ADP数据爆冷，DOGE的锅？

Group 1 - The ADP data for June shows a surprising decrease in private sector employment by 33,000 jobs, marking the first negative reading in over two years, contrary to economists' expectations of a 100,000 job increase [1] - The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is expected to cut 288,628 federal government positions within the year, contributing to a slowdown in the labor market at a critical time [1] - Job vacancies in government sectors have decreased by 5% from January to April, while the application rate remains stagnant at 2014 levels, indicating a challenging environment for job seekers [3] Group 2 - There has been a 150% increase in job applications from government employees, particularly in data analysis, marketing, and software development roles, as they seek new opportunities amid fears of layoffs [3] - The search volume for positions such as "policy analyst" and "contract specialist" has surged, with a tenfold increase in searches for "policy analyst" roles among federal employees [3] - The labor market is expected to show complex dynamics, with a total of over 2.47 million layoffs in the second quarter, the highest since the second quarter of 2020, despite a 49% decrease in layoffs from May to June [5] Group 3 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show only 115,000 new jobs added in June, which would represent the slowest job growth in the first half of the year since the financial crisis, with an expected slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4] - The demand for white-collar jobs is significantly higher than for skilled labor jobs, posing a challenge for job seekers entering the labor market [6] - The tech sector is facing hiring difficulties due to sustained high interest rates, which hinder the growth of debt-dependent tech companies, particularly startups, leading to a reduction in hiring [6]