特朗普政策拖后腿！美国6月失业率要创三年半新高？

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is expected to show signs of slowing down in June, with an anticipated unemployment rate increase to 4.3%, the highest in three and a half years [1] - Non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May and below the three-month average of 135,000 [1][2] - The average hourly wage growth is expected to remain steady at 0.3%, with an annualized increase of 3.9% [1] Group 2 - The proportion of consumers who believe "job opportunities are plentiful" fell to the lowest level in over four years in June [4] - Economists predict that the unemployment rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to restart its easing cycle in September [4] - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with a 74.7% probability of keeping rates unchanged in July and a 71.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut in September [4][5] Group 3 - A rising trend in layoffs is contributing to a decrease in re-employment opportunities, which explains the expected rise in the unemployment rate [3] - The labor market is facing challenges due to hiring fatigue, while layoffs remain low as employers continue to struggle with recruitment post-pandemic [2] Group 4 - The healthcare sector is likely to remain a key employment driver, while the leisure and hospitality industry may see reduced job applications due to fears of deportation among immigrants [6] - The manufacturing sector continues to be constrained by tariffs, and the trend of mild reductions in federal government jobs persists [6]