本轮创新药行情的核心驱动力是什么？

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical industry is gradually recovering from a bear market, with significant improvements observed in the innovative drug sector driven by policy support, clinical data catalysts, and record-high overseas licensing agreements [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The number of license-out agreements by Chinese pharmaceutical companies has increased from 17 in 2018 to 94 in 2024, with upfront payments rising from approximately $200 million to over $4 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of about 16% [2]. - The total transaction value for license-out agreements reached over $50 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 20% [2]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a doubling of license-out transaction values to $36.9 billion compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Changes in Business Development (BD) Models - The traditional license-out model is shifting towards a NewCo model, allowing both parties to co-own a new company responsible for the pipeline, enhancing collaboration and retaining some negotiation power for domestic companies [3]. - The proportion of upfront payments in BD transactions has significantly increased, with recent collaborations setting new records for upfront payments in the innovative drug sector [3]. Group 3: R&D Advancements - China's innovative drug industry has seen substantial improvements in R&D capabilities, with a notable increase in the number of first-in-class (FIC) drugs, covering 40% of global drug development targets [4]. - As of last year, Chinese companies ranked first in the development progress of 22% of these targets, indicating significant breakthroughs in original research [4]. Group 4: Clinical Data and Market Sentiment - The release of high-quality clinical data and presentations at major academic conferences have positively influenced market expectations, with a notable increase in the number of Chinese studies presented at the 2025 CSCO annual meeting [5]. - Positive financial signals from companies, including early signs of profitability and improved cash flow, are helping to reshape market perceptions regarding the sustainability of innovative drug companies [5]. Group 5: Cash Flow and Commercial Viability - The upfront payments from BD transactions are providing better cash flow for innovative drug companies, allowing them to alleviate cash flow pressures and transition towards more stable revenue streams [6]. - The increasing frequency of overseas transactions and the enhancement of commercialization capabilities are driving the recovery of valuations in the innovative drug sector [6][7]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities - The recent recovery in the pharmaceutical sector has led to a renewed interest from public funds, with suggestions for investors to adopt a phased approach to investing in the innovative drug sector, particularly through diversified ETFs [7].