Is Pfizer Stock a Yield Trap?

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is facing significant challenges due to upcoming patent expirations, which could lead to a substantial decline in revenue, but the company has a strong pipeline of new products that may help maintain its dividend growth. Group 1: Current Financial Situation - Pfizer's stock has declined approximately 60% from its peak in 2021, yet the company has consistently raised its dividend since 2009, currently offering a yield of 7.1% [2][4] - The yield from Pfizer is over four times higher than the average dividend payer in the S&P 500, but maintaining this payout is uncertain [4] Group 2: Patent Expiration Impact - Pfizer's CEO has indicated that the loss of exclusivity (LOE) could reduce annual revenue by $17 billion to $18 billion from 2026 to 2028 [7] - Eliquis, a key product, is expected to face generic competition starting next year in the EU and in 2028 in the U.S., contributing to revenue loss [8] - Sales of other products, such as Ibrance, are already declining due to competition, with Ibrance sales down 7% year over year [9] Group 3: Growth Opportunities - Pfizer's total revenue reached $62.5 billion over the trailing 12 months, and the company aims to fill the revenue gap with new products expected to generate $20 billion annually by 2030 [11][12] - The acquisition of Seagen for around $43 billion is expected to enhance Pfizer's manufacturing capabilities and margin expansion [13] - If gross margins recover and new product launches succeed, Pfizer could continue to meet and raise its dividend commitments [15] Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, Pfizer's extensive pipeline of upcoming and recently launched treatments positions the company to potentially overcome patent cliffs and maintain its dividend-raising streak [17] - The unpredictability of drug launches remains a concern, but the likelihood of continued dividend increases appears stronger [18]