Peloton Stock Is Down 95%: 1 Reason It Could Keep Crashing, and 1 Reason It Might Bounce Back

Core Viewpoint - Peloton Interactive has experienced a significant decline in sales and stock price since the pandemic-related surge in demand, leading to ongoing challenges in its business model and financial performance [2][11]. Revenue Performance - Peloton's annual revenue peaked at $4 billion in fiscal 2021, with 78% from equipment sales and 22% from subscriptions [5]. - Revenue decreased to $3.5 billion in fiscal 2022, $2.8 billion in fiscal 2023, and further to $2.7 billion in fiscal 2024, with forecasts suggesting it will fall below $2.5 billion for fiscal 2025 [6]. - Equipment sales have dramatically declined, contributing only 33% to total revenue in fiscal 2025, while subscriptions accounted for 67% [8]. Subscriber Trends - The number of connected fitness subscribers fell to 2.88 million by the end of fiscal 2025 Q3, a 6% decline year-over-year [9]. - A new subscription service for non-equipment owners saw a decline in members to 573,000, down 15% from the previous year [10]. Cost Management and Profitability - Peloton's net loss soared by 1,390% in fiscal 2022, reaching $2.8 billion, prompting management to cut costs significantly [12][13]. - By fiscal 2024, operating expenses were halved compared to fiscal 2022, resulting in a GAAP loss of $552 million but a positive adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 million [14]. - In the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, Peloton reported a GAAP loss of $140.5 million but an adjusted EBITDA of $263 million, indicating improved financial health [15]. Market Position and Valuation - Peloton's current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 1, significantly lower than its peak of around 20, reflecting investor skepticism about recovery prospects [17]. - The recent increase in adjusted EBITDA is primarily due to cost-cutting measures rather than revenue growth, raising concerns about sustainability [19]. Future Outlook - For Peloton to recover, it must find ways to increase sales and drive revenue growth without incurring further losses [20].