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“反内卷奏乐”,周期“起舞” | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang·2025-07-03 08:57

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need for the cement industry to address overproduction and promote "anti-involution" and "steady growth" through regulatory measures [1][2] - The Central Financial Committee's meeting on July 1 highlighted the importance of legally regulating low-price competition among enterprises and guiding them to enhance product quality [2] - The China Cement Association issued the "Work Opinion" to further promote high-quality development in the cement industry, focusing on aligning registered production capacity with actual production capacity [2][3] Group 2 - The article discusses the limitations of peak-shifting production, which has been used since the 13th Five-Year Plan to balance supply and demand but faces challenges during rapid demand declines [3] - The implementation of policies to address overproduction is expected to accelerate the exit of excess capacity, with actual clinker production capacity projected to decrease from over 2.1 billion tons to 1.7 billion tons if strictly enforced [3] - The industry's profitability is expected to improve due to a better supply-demand balance, with current coal prices providing additional room for profit recovery [3][4] Group 3 - The industry is experiencing a strong awareness of "anti-involution," with leading companies collaborating to maintain prices, and the decline in coal prices could enhance profitability once cement prices recover [4] - The industry is rated as "positive," with recommendations to focus on companies such as Conch Cement, Huaxin Cement, and Shangfeng Cement [4]