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【环球财经】美国6月非农前瞻:劳动力市场显著降温,美联储降息前景再生变
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-03 09:24

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with expectations for June's non-farm payrolls to fall below previous months, reflecting the impact of policy uncertainty on economic prospects [1][2][10] - Predictions for June's non-farm payrolls suggest an increase of only 10.6 thousand jobs, down from 139 thousand in May, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [1][2] - Analysts from major financial institutions like UBS, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs anticipate that the upcoming non-farm data will be considerably weaker than expected, with Goldman predicting only 85 thousand new jobs [2][3] Group 2 - The ADP employment report for June showed a surprising decline of 33 thousand jobs, marking the largest drop since March 2023, which raises concerns about the overall employment trend [5][14] - The employment growth breadth has significantly decreased, with only three sectors contributing to job gains in May, and the employment diffusion index dropping to 54.4% [5][6] - Structural pressures in the labor market are becoming critical indicators for the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic health, with expectations that weak employment data could trigger a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy [10][11] Group 3 - Market reactions to the upcoming non-farm payroll data are expected to be significant, with potential volatility in the dollar and commodities depending on whether the data meets or falls short of expectations [11][14] - Analysts predict that if the non-farm payrolls come in below 85 thousand, the S&P 500 index could see declines of 2-3%, while numbers within the expected range could lead to modest gains [15]