7月2日汇市晚评：澳大利亚5月贸易顺差意外收窄 澳元/美元交投于0.6600下方

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market is experiencing mixed movements, with the euro underperforming against the dollar while the British pound continues to rise. The market is closely watching upcoming U.S. employment data for further direction. Currency Movements - The euro to dollar exchange rate has been low, trading around 1.1800 [1] - The British pound has increased for four consecutive days, trading above 1.3700 [1] - The dollar to yen has rebounded to around 144.00, following the dollar's overall rebound [1] - Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in May, putting pressure on the Australian dollar, which is trading below 0.6600 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is trading positively around 0.6050 [1] - The dollar to Canadian dollar is in negative territory, close to 1.3585 [1] Employment and Interest Rate Outlook - The ADP employment numbers have turned negative for the first time in over two years, leading to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2] - A majority of strategists in a Reuters survey expect the dollar positions to remain stable or see an increase in net shorts by the end of July [6] Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering a supportive policy stance, with some members indicating no urgency to lower rates [10][11] - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member suggests five rate cuts may be needed by 2025 [9] - The Bank of Japan is contemplating further adjustments to its monetary easing if positive corporate behavior is confirmed [11] Technical Analysis - The euro/dollar pair is in a correction phase after nine consecutive days of increases, with limited downside potential [14] - The dollar/yen is testing key support levels, with critical support identified at 141.500 [15] - The Australian dollar may be forming a "evening star" pattern, indicating a potential reversal and deeper correction if it breaks below 0.6550 [15] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases include U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates, which are expected to influence market sentiment [16]