惠科股份IPO募85亿估值水平是否被高估 财报有无数据“水分”？

Core Viewpoint - Huike Co., Ltd. plans to raise 8.5 billion CNY through its IPO, with a valuation range between 56 billion CNY and 85 billion CNY. The valuation may be considered high when compared to the panel industry average PB ratio of approximately 1.2, which suggests a valuation around 40 billion CNY, indicating a potential overvaluation of 16 billion to 45 billion CNY [1][3][6]. Fundraising and Project Allocation - The company has reduced its fundraising target from 9.5 billion CNY to 8.5 billion CNY for its IPO on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The funds will be allocated as follows: 2.5 billion CNY for OLED R&D upgrades, 3 billion CNY for Oxide R&D and industrialization, 2 billion CNY for Mini-LED smart manufacturing, and 1 billion CNY for working capital and bank loan repayment [1][2]. Valuation Analysis - The company's valuation has significantly increased from approximately 30 billion CNY during its first IPO attempt to an estimated 66 billion CNY by the end of 2024. The current IPO fundraising suggests a valuation between 56.7 billion CNY and 85 billion CNY, which is substantially higher than the previous estimates [3][4][6]. Industry Context - The panel industry is characterized by cyclical nature and heavy asset investment, leading to the common use of PB valuation methods. The current PB ratio for major competitors like BOE and TCL Technology is around 1.28, which indicates that Huike's valuation may be inflated compared to its peers [5][6][8]. Financial Health and Risks - Huike's net assets are reported at 30 billion CNY, with over 10 billion CNY in minority interests, raising questions about the quality of its net assets and potential "hidden debt" issues. The company's inventory turnover has been declining over the past five years, while its inventory impairment provision is significantly lower than industry standards, suggesting possible discrepancies in financial reporting [11][16][19]. Revenue and Profitability Trends - The company has experienced fluctuating revenues, with reported figures of 271.34 billion CNY, 357.97 billion CNY, and 403.10 billion CNY over the past three years. Net profits have also varied, with a notable loss in 2019 and a recovery to 36.73 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a 29.96% year-on-year increase [20][21][23]. Customer Dependency and Market Dynamics - Huike's sales to major customer Samsung have sharply declined, with revenue dropping from 4.2 billion CNY in 2023 to 2.6 billion CNY in 2024. This decline raises concerns about customer stability and the company's reliance on a few key clients [28][29].