2025年下半年A股行情如何演绎？八大券商如此研判

Group 1 - A-share market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and upward movement in the second half of 2025, driven by global fundamental improvements and domestic policy support [2][4][5] - Major securities firms are optimistic about the A-share market, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery and sector rotation, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and financial sectors [3][5][6] - The valuation of Chinese assets is undergoing a re-evaluation, with the CSI 800 forward PE TTM stabilizing around 19, indicating a premium over MSCI emerging markets excluding China [3][7] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by loose liquidity and weak demand, similar to the investment peak period of 2020-2021, suggesting that structural growth sectors will be key investment opportunities [4][6] - A-share valuations are at a historical average level, providing a relatively high investment cost-performance ratio compared to developed markets [5][7] - The market is expected to maintain strong support on the valuation front, with a focus on small-cap stocks, technology, and essential consumer goods [7][8] Group 3 - The market is positioned for a long-term slow bull market, with 3400 points seen as a starting point, supported by improved asset quality and valuation environment [8][9] - The focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency is expected to drive growth in sectors such as AI, robotics, and new energy vehicles, enhancing China's competitive edge globally [10][11] - The potential for a significant bull market is anticipated if macroeconomic conditions align, with historical data suggesting substantial returns during synchronized economic cycles [6][9]