【财经分析】供需双弱 印尼“黑金”行业“转战”国内市场

Core Insights - Indonesia's coal industry, the largest exporter of thermal coal globally, is facing significant pressure due to a substantial reduction in coal production and exports this year [1][2] - Coal exports from Indonesia fell by 19.1% from January to May, reaching the lowest level in three years, with total production down by 9.6% to 308 million tons [1] - The decline in coal exports to China and India was particularly pronounced, with decreases of 19.39% and 9.68% respectively [1] Export Dynamics - The drop in coal exports to China is attributed to the lower cost-effectiveness of Indonesian coal compared to domestic production and imports from Russia and Australia [1] - The Indonesian coal reference price (HBA) is higher than current market prices, further diminishing the international competitiveness of Indonesian coal [1][2] - A new export pricing policy based on HBA was implemented on March 1, 2023, replacing previous pricing indices [1] Domestic Market Shift - Due to shrinking export opportunities and rising costs, Indonesian coal companies are increasingly focusing on the domestic market [2] - The domestic coal consumption in Indonesia has also declined, with first-quarter consumption at 12 million tons, down from 16 million tons in the previous year [2] - The mining industry is expected to supply 31.2% of the domestic market to the rapidly expanding mineral smelting sector, while electricity remains the primary consumer of thermal coal at 58% [2] Industry Outlook - Despite the global shift towards clean energy, the Indonesian coal market is expected to remain stable for at least the next decade, with coal continuing to be a major energy source [3]