Will Rising Rates Keep Hammering Home Depot's Core Market Sales?

Core Insights - Higher interest rates are negatively impacting The Home Depot Inc.'s core market of big-ticket remodeling, leading customers to prefer smaller, seasonal improvements over larger renovations [1][4] - Despite a 9.4% year-over-year increase in first-quarter fiscal 2025 sales to $39.9 billion, demand for larger remodeling jobs remains disappointing due to cautious consumer spending influenced by prolonged rate pressures [2][9] - Home Depot estimates a $50 billion cumulative shortfall in home improvement spending since the pandemic, indicating potential deferred demand that could be unlocked if interest rates ease [4][9] Sales Performance - First-quarter fiscal 2025 sales reached $39.9 billion, a 9.4% increase year over year, driven by strong engagement in smaller projects [2][9] - Big-ticket transactions over $1,000 only increased by 0.3%, reflecting a decline in demand for financed renovations [3][9] Competitive Landscape - Rising interest rates are also affecting competitors like Lowe's and Floor & Decor, as consumers delay big-ticket home improvement projects [5][6] - Lowe's performance has softened in DIY-driven categories and big-ticket purchases, while Home Depot is better positioned to navigate demand pressures due to its Pro focus and broader product range [6][7] Valuation and Earnings Outlook - Home Depot's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 23.83X, higher than the industry's 21.11X, indicating a premium valuation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year decline of 1.3%, while fiscal 2026 earnings are expected to grow by 9.1% [11]