美国劳动力市场展现韧性 强劲数据或令美联储降息窗口延后

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with June non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 147,000 jobs added, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [1][5] - The upward revisions of previous months' employment data further confirm the underlying strength of the labor market [5] Employment Growth - Despite the positive June figures, overall employment growth is showing signs of slowing down, indicating that companies are becoming more cautious in hiring due to economic uncertainties [6] - Employers are more inclined to retain existing staff rather than engage in large-scale hiring, reflecting a trend of "labor hoarding" [6] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly wage growth in June was 3.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.9%, suggesting a decrease in wage inflation pressure, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7] Structural Issues in the Labor Market - Significant disparities exist in unemployment rates among different demographic groups, with the Black unemployment rate rising to 6.8%, while rates for adult women and whites have decreased [8] - The number of long-term unemployed has increased to 1.6 million, representing 23.3% of the total unemployed population, indicating ongoing challenges for certain labor segments [8] Industry Performance - Government employment increased by 73,000, particularly in state government education, while healthcare added 39,000 jobs, highlighting the public sector and essential services as key drivers of job growth [9] Market Reaction - Following the non-farm data release, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July significantly decreased [10] - The probability of a September rate cut also dropped from 98% to approximately 80%, reflecting confidence in the current labor market conditions [10] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The strong labor market performance reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, with market expectations shifting towards potential cuts in September or December [11] - Future non-farm data and inflation reports will be critical in determining the Federal Reserve's policy direction [12]