美国6月非农大超预期 7月降息预期就此破碎？

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the U.S. job growth in June exceeded expectations for the fourth consecutive month, with a decrease in the unemployment rate, indicating resilience in the labor market despite economic slowdown [1][3] - The U.S. non-farm payroll increased by 147,000 in June, significantly above the expected 111,000, primarily driven by a surge in state and local government employment [1][2] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May, while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year, mainly attributed to the healthcare sector [1][2] Group 2 - The data aligns with a trend of slowing hiring activity as employers navigate the unpredictable trade policies of President Trump and await congressional approval of tax legislation [3] - Employment data will influence Federal Reserve officials' discussions on when to resume interest rate cuts, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating a cautious approach until the impact of tariffs on inflation becomes clearer [3] - Investors are closely monitoring the June non-farm payroll report, as a weak performance could open the door for the Fed to restart rate cuts later in the month [3] Group 3 - A recent report from JPMorgan indicates that U.S. consumers' overall cash reserves are more abundant compared to Q4 2019, which may lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and increased market volatility [4] - Despite potential short-term volatility, this scenario is expected to be beneficial in the long run, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices likely to continue their bullish trajectory [4]