印度央行释放宽松信号安抚市场

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may consider further interest rate cuts if inflation data continues to be lower than expected, indicating a data-driven decision-making approach to balance economic growth and inflation control [1] - The RBI unexpectedly lowered the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% in early June, exceeding market expectations, and shifted its policy stance from "accommodative" to "neutral," leading to speculation about the end of the current rate-cutting cycle [1][2] - The RBI's recent statements aim to reassure market sentiment amid concerns over tightening financing conditions, as the central bank noted that the space for further easing is narrowing after cumulative rate cuts of 100 basis points over three meetings [1][3] Group 2 - India's inflation forecast for this year has been revised down from 4% to 3.7%, with the overall inflation rate dropping to 3.2% in April, the lowest in nearly six years, providing room for policy adjustments [2] - The Indian economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in the fiscal year 2024/2025, driven by a 10.8% surge in the construction sector and improvements in manufacturing and services [2] - Despite the positive growth outlook, challenges such as rising non-performing loans and capital outflow pressures remain, prompting the RBI to be cautious in its policy adjustments [3] Group 3 - The overall consumption capacity in India is declining, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.6% in May 2025, and youth unemployment reaching 18.3%, indicating a mismatch between macroeconomic data and the living standards of ordinary citizens [3] - The structural issues in India's economy, such as insufficient consumer demand and the monopolistic market structure, hinder significant improvements in consumption, despite monetary policy adjustments [4] - The RBI's former deputy governor highlighted that the expansion of market share by major conglomerates since 2016 has led to reduced competition and innovation, negatively impacting consumer satisfaction and market dynamics [4][5]