多晶硅价格反弹，却遭分析师泼冷水 为什么说涨势可能只维持一两周？

Core Viewpoint - Recent rebound in polysilicon prices is observed, driven by stable production and inventory levels, along with policy catalysts, despite weak downstream demand [1][2][4]. Group 1: Polysilicon Price Trends - As of July 2, the transaction price range for N-type polysilicon is between 34,000 to 38,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 34,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week increase of 0.87% [1]. - On July 3, the main futures contract for polysilicon reached a limit up, with a price increase of 2.14%, settling at 35,050 yuan per ton [1]. - The market is experiencing a tentative price increase due to a combination of previously deferred orders being executed at higher prices and a few new orders being priced higher [3][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The monthly production of polysilicon has remained stable at around 100,000 tons, aligning with demand and avoiding additional inventory pressure [4][8]. - The Chinese government is implementing measures to adjust supply-side dynamics and control competition below cost, which is positively influencing market expectations [4]. - The average production cost for the polysilicon industry is estimated between 40,000 to 46,000 yuan per ton, with cash costs around 35,000 to 37,000 yuan per ton, indicating that prices need to rise to at least 38,000 yuan per ton for profitability [5][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The current price increase is expected to last for one to two weeks, contingent on downstream demand transmission [5]. - The polysilicon market is projected to face challenges in fully digesting existing inventory due to increased production and stable demand levels [8][9]. - The upcoming production increase in July is attributed to the onset of the wet season, leading to lower electricity costs and potential resumption of production in the polysilicon sector [8]. Group 4: Impact of External Factors - The recent rise in Hong Kong's solar energy stocks is linked to the U.S. Senate passing a bill that does not impose tariffs on imported components, which is favorable for the Chinese solar industry [11]. - The potential for Chinese companies to establish manufacturing facilities in the U.S. faces challenges due to policy uncertainties and high costs, which may hinder competitiveness [11].